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The delay in official results of Zimbabwe’s presidential vote today fuelled international fears that Robert Mugabe was resorting to electoral fraud to hang on to power.

The EU and Britain urged Zimbabwe’s electoral officials to publish final results of the vote as quickly as possible to “avoid unnecessary speculation”.

An EU spokesman, John Clancy, said Zimbabwe’s electoral commission needed to show its “independence” amid claims by the opposition that they have defeated Mugabe in parliamentary and presidential elections.

Downing Street echoed the EU’s concern.

“At the moment we are awaiting the formal announcement of the results of the elections in Zimbabwe,” said Gordon Brown’s spokesman. “We very much hope that the announcement will not be delayed unduly. It’s important, particularly for the people of Zimbabwe, that there is clarity about the situation regarding the elections as soon as possible.”

Mugabe blocked the electoral commission from releasing official presidential election results and threatened to treat opposition claims of victory as a coup.

The only official results to have been released were for the 210 parliamentary seats — relatively insignificant compared with the presidential vote.

In early results, Mugabe’s ruling Zanu-PF party suffered major blows early on as several cabinet members including the justice minister, Patrick Chinamasa, lost their seats.

The electoral commission said each party had won 12 parliamentary constituencies out of the total of 210 seats.

No official results were available for the presidential poll, in which Mugabe faces the severest challenge to his 28-year rule with Zimbabwe in economic turmoil.

In an early morning broadcast on radio and television, the deputy chief elections officer, Utoile Silaigwana, declared the first parliamentary results before saying: “We’ll be back with you when we have more results.”

The delay in releasing the result heightened fears of fraud. Two South African members of the Southern African Development Community, a regional observer mission, said it “underscores the fear that vote-rigging is taking place”.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change said that what it regards as the overwhelming win by its candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, was “under threat” despite growing support for its claim of victory from foreign monitors.

The MDC said the party also said it had “security concerns” after a police raid on its election offices yesterday. Tsvangirai made no public appearances, apparently because of concern for his safety.

Mugabe’s spokesman, George Charamba, warned Tsvangirai not to declare himself president because that “is called a coup d’etat, and we all know how coups are handled”.

Sources close to the MDC said the party leadership had put out feelers to the military and elements of the ruling Zanu-PF to try to arrange a peaceful transfer of power.

Independent monitoring groups said returns posted at around two-thirds of polling stations gave Tsvangirai 55% of the vote to Mugabe’s 36%.

The monitors said there was no way for the president to win the election legitimately. He had lost in his home territory of Mashonaland along with other former strongholds.

A third presidential candidate, Simba Makoni, a former finance minister who broke with Mugabe, took around 9% of the vote.

Zanu-PF also appeared to have suffered losses in the parliamentary election, with at least nine members of its politburo losing their seats. These included the vice-president, Joice Mujuru, and the defence, information and education ministers.

The MDC’s secretary general, Tendai Biti, said the party was increasingly alarmed at the refusal of the state-run Zimbabwe electoral commission to issue any results.

“It appears the regime is at a loss how to respond … We are really concerned by this assault on democracy,” he said. “The primary point of an election is a result. We think there is a constitutional threat to those results.”

In the past, the commission has begun issuing results as soon as they are posted at polling stations, collating them by constituency for release within hours of the vote.

The organisation’s chairman, George Chiweshe, declined to explain why he was still not issuing results more than 24 hours after the polls closed.

“This is a complicated election, and we will release the results when we have them,” he said.

Opposition supporters in some towns, including Bulawayo, Mutare and Masvingo, publicly celebrated, but generally Zimbabweans were cautious, not quite believing that Mugabe would leave office.

With more than 50% of the vote, Tsvangirai would avoid a runoff election, although his proportion might yet fall below the threshold because many of the remaining results are from rural areas in which Mugabe traditionally has support.

Biti warned that there was still scope for fraud. He said his party was encountering new irregularities, including the sudden appearance of additional ballot boxes at polling stations where the count had been completed.

He also said MDC election agents had been prevented from attending the count at several polling stations where the results then showed Zanu-PF doing significantly better than in surrounding areas.

South African monitors said they believed the opposition had won, but would delay making a public statement until the official results were announced.

The Pan-African parliament observer mission warned against further delays in issuing the results.

The British foreign office minister, Mark Malloch-Brown, said it was “quite likely” that Mugabe had lost despite “massive pre-election day cheating”.

Kenya-based Andebrhan Giorgis of the International Crisis Group thinktank said it was possible Mugabe would concede.

“It is not outside the realm of possibility that he would accept defeat in a supreme act of statesmanship,” he said. “An act of concession would redeem him and it would be the only way of assuring stability, avoid violence and begin reversing economic decline.”

The African continent is a rich mosaic of ecosystems, ranging from the snow and ice fields of Kilimanjaro to tropical rainforests to the Saharan desert.

Although it has the lowest per capita fossil energy use of any major world region, Africa may be the most vulnerable continent to climate change because widespread poverty limits countries? capabilities to adapt.

Signs of a changing climate in Africa have already emerged: spreading disease and melting glaciers in the mountains, warming temperatures in drought-prone areas, and sea-level rise and coral bleaching along the coastlines.

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3. Cairo, Egypt — Warmest August on record, 1998. Temperatures reached 105.8?F (41?C) on August 6, 1998.

5. Southern Africa — Warmest and driest decade on record, 1985-1995. Average temperature increased almost 1?F (0.56?C) over the past century.

41. Senegal — Sea-level rise; Sea-level rise is causing the loss of coastal land at Rufisque, on the South Coast of Senegal.

61. Kenya — Mt. Kenya’s largest glacier disappearing. 92 percent of the Lewis Glacier has melted in the past 100 years.

121. World Ocean - Warming water. The world ocean has experienced a net warming of 0.11?F (0.06?C) from the sea surface to a depth of 10,000 feet (3000 m) over the past 35-45 years. More than half of the increase in heat content has occurred in the upper 1000 feet (300 m), which has warmed by 0.56?F (0.31?C). Warming is occurring in all ocean basins and at much deeper depths than previously thought. These findings lend support to the hypothesis that the oceans are taking up excess heat as the atmosphere warms, and would account for the apparent discrepancy in the magnitude of the observed atmospheric warming as compared to climate model predictions.

133. Mount Kilmanjaro, Tanzania - Ice projected to disappear by 2020. 82% of Kilimanjaro?s ice has disappeared since 1912, with about one-third melting in just the last dozen years. At this rate, all of the ice will be gone in about 15 years. Scientists hypothesize that less snow on the mountain during the rainy season decreases the surface reflectiveness, leading to higher rates of absorption of heat and increased ice melt.

134. Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda - Disappearing glaciers. Since the 1990s, glacier area has decreased by about 75%. The continent of Africa warmed by 0.9? F (0.5?C) during the past century, and the five warmest years in Africa have all occurred since 1988.

Harbingers
14. Kenya — Deadly malaria outbreak, summer, 1997. Hundreds of people died from malaria in the Kenyan highlands where the population had previously been unexposed.

17. Tanzania — Malaria expands in mountains. Higher annual temperatures in the Usamabara Mountains have been linked to expanding malaria transmission.

51. Indian Ocean — Coral Reef Bleaching (includes Seychelles; Kenya; Reunion; Mauritius; Somalia; Madagascar; Maldives; Indonesia; Sri Lanka; Gulf of Thailand [Siam]; Andaman Islands; Malaysia; Oman; India; and Cambodia).

52. Persian Gulf — Coral reef bleaching.

57. Seychelles Islands — Coral reef bleaching.

151. Kenya - Worst drought in 60 years, 2001. Over four million people were affected by a severely reduced harvest, weakened livestock, and poor sanitary conditions.

154. Lake Chad - Disappearing Lake. The surface area of the lake has decreased from 9,650 square miles (25,000 km2) in 1963 to 521 (1,350 km2) today. Modeling studies indicate the severe reduction results from a combination of reduced rainfall and increased demand for water for agricultural irrigation and other human needs.

156. South Africa - Burning shores, January 2000. One of the driest Decembers on record and temperatures over 104?F (40?C) fueled extensive fires along the coast in the Western Cape Province. The intensity of the fires was exacerbated by the presence of invasive vegetation species, some of which give off 300% more heat when burned compared to natural vegetation.

The impacts of warming temperatures in Antarctica are likely to occur first in the northern sections of the continent, where summer temperatures approach the melting point of water, 32?F (0?C). Some ice shelves in the northernmost part of Antarctica—the Antarctic Peninsula—have been collapsing in recent years, consistent with the rapid warming trend there since 1945. Scientists are also concerned about future changes in the large West Antarctic ice sheet on the main continent because its collapse could raise sea level by as much as 19 feet (5.8 meters).

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70. Antarctic Peninsula — Warming 5 times global average. Since 1945, the Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a warming of about 4.5?F (2.5?C). The annual melt season has increased by 2 to 3 weeks in just the past 20 years.

73. Antarctica — Ice shelf disintegration. The 770 square mile (1,994 km2) Larsen A ice shelf disintegrated suddenly in January 1995.

74. Antarctica — Ice shelf breakup. After 400 years of relative stability, nearly 1,150 square miles (2,978 km2) of the Larson B and Wilkins ice shelves collapsed between March 1998 and March 1999.

122. Southern Ocean - Strong warming trend. Measurements from data recorders in the Southern Ocean waters around Antarctica show a 0.3?F (0.17?C) rise in ocean temperatures between the 1950s and the 1980s.

140. Antarctica - Decreasing Ice-thickness. The permanent ice cover of nine lakes on Signey Island has decreased by about 45% since the 1950s. Average summer air temperature has warmed by 1.8?F (1?C).

141. Antarctic Peninsula - Collapsing ice-shelf, January-February 2002. The northern section of the Larsen B ice shelf, an area of 1,250 square miles (3,250 km2), disintegrated in a period of 35 days. This was the largest collapse event of the last 30 years, bringing the total loss of ice extent from seven ice shelves to 6,760 square miles (17,500 km2) since 1974. The ice retreat is attributed to the region?s strong warming trend - 4.5?F (2.5?C) in the last 50 years.

Harbingers
32. Antarctica — Penguin population decline. Adelie Penguin populations have shrunk by 33% during the past 25 years in response to declines in their winter sea ice habitat.